Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
