Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
